The topic has a direct bearing on the allocation of resources and long-term planning of community infrastructure and services in settlements throughout Australia, particularly those in coastal areas. Population growth in Australia’s coastal areas is consistently among the highest in the nation. The current absence of accurate data on peak populations in these areas creates difficulty for State agencies and local governments in planning the provision of adequate infrastructure and services to meet community needs. State agencies and local governments would be able to plan services to meet community needs with greater certainty if reliable data on population peaks in coastal areas were available.
The lack of accurate data on peak populations also places communities in coastal areas at a financial disadvantage because it means the allocation of funds through programs such as Financial Assistance Grants is based in part on permanent populations drawn from the Census data rather than on actual peak populations. The permanent populations in these areas, as indicated below, are often substantially lower than peak populations.
A major research project undertaken by the late Professor Graeme Hugo and a research team at The University of Adelaide in 2013 (Hugo G and Harris K, (2013) 'Time and tide; moving towards an understanding of temporal population changes in coastal Australia', Adelaide) showed there is a significant, discernible difference between the permanent population in coastal ‘sea change’ areas, as determined by the Census, which is conducted mid-week in winter, and the peak populations in these areas at other times of the year, when non-resident owners of properties in the area and larger numbers of tourists are more likely to be present. As indicated at page 14 of the final report of the research project:
'At the aggregate level, 95.7 per cent of non-resident holiday home owners were not at their sea change LGA on the night of the 2011 Census. The Report developed a methodology to identify non-resident properties that would have been rented out on Census night, and whose tenants should therefore have been counted in the Census. Allowing for this, the survey indicated that at the aggregate level two thirds of non-resident properties would have been unoccupied on the night of the Census'.
The following table indicates the number of persons who use the services and facilities in nine coastal councils that participated as case study areas in The University of Adelaide research project, who were not present on the night of the 2011 Census. It also indicates the percentage of the permanent population in each area that these additional ‘missing’ persons represent.
LGA/Combined Est. Population of unoccupied dwelling and tourists/Combined Est. Population as a percentage of population in 2011 Census
Busselton 8,429 27.8%
Byron 5,254 18.0%
Cairns 28,655 18.3%
East Gippsland 8,595 20.4%
Eurobodalla 11,296 31.6%
Mandurah 11,971 17.1%
Mornington Peninsula 30,391 21.0%
Shoalhaven 22,721 24.5%
Surf Coast 8,848 34.2%
Adequately meeting community needs for basic infrastructure and services is a critical function of local government. The lack of accurate data on peak populations is a major barrier to accurately assessing the current or projected level of demand for infrastructure and services in coastal communities, where there is a significant fluctuation between population levels at different times of the year.